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Demand and Capacity Management

WPA is an industry leader in forecasting, monitoring, and managing passenger demand and operating capacity.

Our experience has been particularly valuable to Train Operating Companies and other organisations during the recovery from Covid; as operational costs are being squeezed by Treasury; during fleet replacement & enhancement programmes, and in responding to Business Plan requests from the Department for Transport.

WPA has experience in all aspects of managing demand and capacity, from carefully monitoring and analysing of passenger count data, to timetable construction & modelling and passenger behaviour analysis.

Example projects include:

  • Fleet replacement: WPA supported Greater Anglia, who were in the early stages of replacing its entire fleet with 1,043 new vehicles when the Covid pandemic hit.  WPA assisted in monitoring loadings and producing demand forecasts to ensure that legacy fleet was handed back in a timely manner, while also managing passenger expectation for increased space.  WPA’s involvement saved millions in lease costs.

  • Timetable rewrite: Multiple examples of utilising demand forecasts, count data and MOIRA2 modelling to plan peak timetables that match capacity and demand, minimising cost and maximising passenger satisfaction.

  • MOIRA2 calibration: WPA have significant experience of calibrating MOIRA2 to enable TOCs to accurately forecast demand on services.

  • PDFH Demand forecasting: WPA have been involved in the production and peer review of demand and revenue forecasts as part of National Rail Contracts, franchise bids, and direct awards.

  • Crowding modelling: WPA have built numerous crowding models to forecast likely passenger suppression over the term of a franchise or concession.

  • Train Loads dashboard: collation of count data into an insightful dashboard to give insight into busiest services, days of week and time of day.

  • Review of passenger behaviour: WPA has advised on ways to maximise the use of existing capacity through the use of careful passenger messaging and operational amendments – such as the placement of stopping boards.

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